This week a panel of some of the top economists in the country met in Seattle to discuss their thoughts on what transpired in the first quarter and what their forecasts are for the rest of 2009 and beyond. These are people who head research and strategy departments for some of the most well known money managers in the world. After some frantic note taking, here is a summary of their thoughts on a variety of economic subjects:

Unemployment: Probably the slowest of the lagging indicators to reflect the true condition of the economy, this panel predicted that unemployment would top out near the end of 2009 at a level of around 9.5%. We currently are seeing an 8.5% unemployment rate. The great unknown when it comes to unemployment is the automotive sector, and their fate rests in the hands of politicians controlling bailout money. If the government stops lending to carmakers, we could very easily see double digit unemployment. These economists don’t expect employment numbers to start moving in positive territory again until late 2010 at the earliest.

Stock Market Recovery: March was a miraculous month for stocks. After hitting 13 year lows on March 9^th with the Dow hitting the 6500 mark, stocks rallied and finished the month with a 9% gain. Those gains have carried into April. We still have a long way to go, but these economists all believed that the market will not dip below the levels it reached March 9^th again anytime soon, although we may get close. The consensus opinion for long term stock market recovery begins in the 4^th quarter of this year. Favorite sectors include technology and consumer staples.

Political Economic Factors: With a growing list of government programs targeting certain aspects of a struggling economy, it’s hard to know how quickly the impact of these programs will be felt. The economists stressed that just because a program has been approved by lawmakers and discussed on the news doesn’t mean it has been implemented. They cautioned people worried about a lack of results to be patient as the programs are put in place instead of looking for instant economic improvement.

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Tags: Bailout, Economists, recovery, unemployment

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